The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released an updated assessment of the ongoing bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, confirming that the shortage of aircraft remains a major obstacle to growth in the sector.
Although the delivery of new airplanes started to recover in late 2025 and production is expected to pick up in 2026, demand is projected to exceed the available supply of airframes and engines for several years. The imbalance between airline needs and manufacturing capacity is unlikely to be resolved before 2031‑2034 because of the cumulative loss of deliveries over the past five years and an unprecedented order backlog.
Key figures
- Delivery shortfalls exceed 5,300 aircraft.
- Order backlog is now above 17,000 aircraft – roughly 60 % of the current global fleet, compared with a historic 30‑40 %.
- Average fleet age has risen to 15.1 years (12.8 years for passenger jets, 19.6 years for cargo aircraft, 14.5 years for wide‑bodies).
- More than 5,000 aircraft are parked in storage, one of the highest levels recorded.
Willie Walsh, IATA Director General, warned that airlines are feeling the impact across their operations: higher leasing costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, delayed sustainability initiatives, and reliance on less‑optimal aircraft types. Passengers, in turn, are facing higher fares due to tighter supply‑demand dynamics.
Underlying causes
- Airframe production is outpacing engine output, leaving completed fuselages waiting for powerplants.
- Certification timelines have lengthened from 12‑24 months to up to five years, slowing entry into service.
- Tariffs on metals and electronics, stemming from US‑China trade tensions, have aggravated material shortages and raised maintenance expenses.
- Shortages of skilled labour, especially in engine and component manufacturing, are limiting ramp‑up plans.
- The supply chain’s reliance on a limited number of suppliers makes it vulnerable to disruptions, economic uncertainty, and changing tariff regimes.
- Fuel‑efficiency gains have stalled as the fleet ages; annual efficiency improvement fell to 0.3 % in 2025.
- For the cargo sector, the conversion of passenger aircraft is limited, new wide‑body builds are delayed, and aging freighters are approaching the end of their service lives.
Financial impact
IATA’s joint study with Oliver Wymann estimates that supply‑chain constraints will cost the airline industry more than USD 11 billion in 2025, broken down as follows:
- Excess fuel costs – about USD 4.2 billion, due to operation of older, less efficient aircraft.
- Additional maintenance expenses – USD 3.1 billion, reflecting higher wear on an aging fleet.
- Increased engine‑leasing costs – USD 2.6 billion, as engines spend longer on the ground and lease rates have risen 20‑30 % since 2019.
- Higher inventory holding costs – USD 1.4 billion, caused by airlines stockpiling spare parts to mitigate supply uncertainties.
Suggested actions
- Broaden aftermarket practices by supporting MROs to operate beyond OEM‑driven licensing and by enabling alternative sourcing of materials and services.
- Improve supply‑chain transparency through comprehensive visibility across all supplier tiers, allowing early risk detection and more efficient data‑driven decision‑making.
- Leverage predictive‑maintenance data, shared spare‑part pools, and common maintenance platforms to cut downtime and inventory costs.
- Expand repair capacity and adopt advanced manufacturing techniques to accelerate part approvals and support the use of Used Serviceable Material (USM).
For further information, please contact IATA Corporate Communications at +41 22 770 2967 or [email protected].
Source: www.iata.org
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